I wish it was, and it still may be. But nothing has changed yet. We are still in a bear market and this is just a bear market rally. Let me explain. Lets look at a long term chart that shows what the SPY (representing the S&P 500) did in the last bear market to what the market has done so far in this bear market.
In late 2000, the market began selling off by making lower lows and lower highs as seen in the chart. Also look at other confirming indicators (MACD Histogram & 2 lines) as they indicated that the momentum was clearly lower. But that all changed when the market made its first higher high in May of 2003. Notice that the indicators confirmed the price action. The green vertical line indicates when the bull market began.
Now where are we now? We are still making lower lows and I think it is probable that we will make another lower high in the coming weeks. But the market doesn't care what I think, so if the S&P can get above the last high (S&P 945 or SPY 94.55) and the other indicators confirm the price action/momentum, then I believe it will be time to start playing the long side. Otherwise, be prepared for the next sell wave. And with the magnitude of this recent rally, it could be a doozy...
